This year's ACM Awards in Las Vegas include some gambles and a few safe bets. The Vocal Group of the Year category looks to be Sugarland's to win, but newer acts like Thompson Square and Love and Theft could certainly pull off an upset.

More than any other category, events outside of music could play a role in determining which artist a voter chooses. How will the Indiana State Fair tragedy effect Sugarland's votes? Will Steel Magnolia's off-stage troubles cost them votes? Will Montgomery Gentry's moving comeback story sway ACM voters? Click the button below to read about each nominees chances and to see our prediction for who will win on April 1.