Chris Young earned his first nomination in this category with five straight No. 1 hits. Sure, three of those aren't eligible for consideration at this year's ACM Awards, but momentum plays an important role.

He will win if: Every song Young touches turns to gold, and while he's yet to headline a major tour like the others in the category, his win would indicate that voters are eager for some turnover at the top. There is a tendency for an artist to get nominated a few times before winning major awards, and this seems a more likely course for Young.