Kenny Chesney quietly had a big year in 2011. He toured football arenas all summer long and put another handful of songs on the top of the charts, all while earning two Grammy nominations. Even after a year off in 2010, he's still at the top of his game.

He will win if: If he's nominated, he's a threat to win. A singer's lifetime resume isn't supposed to effect voting on this year's winners, but it does. He's been around a long time and therefore has a ton of fans who want to see him win. Calling him the nostalgia vote discredits the great year he's had, but there is a crowd that will vote for Kenny just because he's Kenny.