These newcomers to the group are riding the wave of their first No. 1 in 'Crazy Girl.' They're definitely a foursome on the rise, but they haven't yet assembled the same type of resume of the others in this category.

They will win if: Voters give a lot of weight to the year's most played song. That was 'Crazy Girl' in 2011, and it wasn't just the sort of song that reached No. 1 because few objected. Eli Young Band sold over a million singles of the Lee Brice co-written hit. The downside is that it took all year to get there, so unlike the other four nominees, EYB doesn't have multiple singles to lean on.